14 Topics
5 Days
70 Sessions
Programme Overview
Training Description
- Corporate planning professionals
- Strategy and business-planning professionals
- Risk managers and analysts
- Treasury professionals
- Management accountants
- Economists and policy analysts
- Project and programme managers
- Business analysts
- Senior executives involved in strategic and financial planning
Session Objectives
- Understand the fundamental principles of scenario planning. Identify and prioritize key drivers of future uncertainty. Develop plausible and coherent future scenarios. Quantify the financial impact of each scenario on the budget. Build flexible budgets that can adapt to different outcomes.
About the Course
Strategic Futures: Scenario Planning and Budget Impact Analysis is a practical training course designed to equip finance, budgeting, strategy, FP&A, risk, and senior management professionals with the tools required to anticipate uncertainty, evaluate alternative futures, and understand their potential impact on organizational budgets and financial performance.The course combines strategic scenario planning with quantitative budget impact analysis to help participants assess how changes in economic conditions, market dynamics, regulations, technology, customer behavior, operational costs, and other uncertainties could affect revenues, expenditures, cash flows, resource requirements, and strategic priorities.
Curriculum & Topics
14 Topics | 70 Sessions
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Workshop 1.1:
The purpose and benefits of scenario planning.
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Workshop 1.2:
Distinguishing scenario planning from forecasting.
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Workshop 1.3:
The historical context and evolution of scenario planning.
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Workshop 1.4:
Case studies of organizations that use scenarios effectively.
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Workshop 1.5:
The key steps in a scenario planning process.
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Workshop 2.1:
Brainstorming and categorizing strategic drivers.
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Workshop 2.2:
Using STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political) analysis.
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Workshop 2.3:
Differentiating between predetermined elements and critical uncertainties.
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Workshop 2.4:
Techniques for identifying high-impact, high-uncertainty factors.
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Workshop 2.5:
Developing a "scenario matrix" to structure analysis.
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Workshop 3.1:
Principles of scenario development and narrative creation.
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Workshop 3.2:
Principles of scenario development and narrative creation.
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Workshop 3.3:
Ensuring internal logic and consistency within each scenario.
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Workshop 3.4:
Techniques for naming and branding scenarios for clarity.
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Workshop 3.5:
Workshop: building your own scenario narratives.
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Workshop 4.1:
The link between scenarios and financial models.
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Workshop 4.2:
Translating qualitative scenario narratives into quantitative assumptions.
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Workshop 4.3:
Identifying key financial metrics to analyze.
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Workshop 4.4:
Introduction to sensitivity analysis.
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Workshop 4.5:
Using flexible budgets within a scenario context.
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Workshop 5.1:
Analyzing how scenarios affect sales volume and pricing.
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Workshop 5.2:
The impact of market share changes in different scenarios.
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Workshop 5.3:
Modeling new product introductions and market entry.
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Workshop 5.4:
Adjusting revenue forecasts based on scenario assumptions.
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Workshop 5.5:
Case study: revenue modeling for a technology company.
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Workshop 6.1:
Analyzing how scenarios affect variable costs.
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Workshop 6.2:
The impact of supply chain disruptions on direct material costs.
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Workshop 6.3:
Modeling changes in fixed costs and overhead.
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Workshop 6.4:
Modeling changes in fixed costs and overhead.
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Workshop 6.5:
Case study: cost modeling for a manufacturing business.
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Workshop 7.1:
The impact of scenarios on accounts receivable and payable.
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Workshop 7.2:
Modeling changes in inventory levels.
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Workshop 7.3:
Analyzing the effect on short-term liquidity.
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Workshop 7.4:
The importance of cash flow forecasting in a scenario.
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Workshop 7.5:
Workshop: creating a cash flow statement for different scenarios.
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Workshop 8.1:
Prioritizing CapEx projects under different scenarios.
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Workshop 8.2:
The impact of economic downturns on investment returns.
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Workshop 8.3:
Using scenario analysis to justify strategic investments.
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Workshop 8.4:
The financial implications of delaying or accelerating projects.
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Workshop 8.5:
Case study: CapEx decision-making in a high-growth environment.
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Workshop 9.1:
Best practices for designing scenario-based financial models.
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Workshop 9.2:
Using Excel functions and tools for "what-if" analysis.
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Workshop 9.3:
Creating scenario dashboards for easy comparison.
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Workshop 9.4:
The role of technology and software in scenario modeling.
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Workshop 9.5:
The role of technology and software in scenario modeling.
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Workshop 10.1:
Presenting complex scenarios to senior leadership.
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Workshop 10.2:
Developing a clear and concise "Executive Summary."
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Workshop 10.3:
Using visual aids to illustrate key financial impacts.
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Workshop 10.4:
Framing recommendations and strategic choices.
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Workshop 10.5:
Workshop: presenting your scenario analysis.
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Workshop 11.1:
The link between annual budgeting and long-term scenarios.
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Workshop 11.2:
How to use scenarios during the budget review process.
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Workshop 11.3:
Creating a "base case" budget and a "contingency budget."
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Workshop 11.4:
The role of scenarios in continuous planning.
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Workshop 11.5:
Making scenario planning a part of your organizational culture.
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Workshop 12.1:
Using scenarios to evaluate new market entry strategies.
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Workshop 12.2:
Informing mergers and acquisitions (M&A) decisions.
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Workshop 12.3:
Testing the resilience of the current business model.
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Workshop 12.4:
The use of scenarios in crisis management and business continuity planning.
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Workshop 12.5:
Case study: strategic decision-making based on scenarios.
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Workshop 13.1:
Identifying leading indicators for each scenario.
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Workshop 13.2:
Establishing a system for monitoring key variables.
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Workshop 13.3:
The importance of "signposts" and trigger points.
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Workshop 13.4:
When to activate a contingency plan.
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Workshop 13.5:
The role of the finance function in continuous monitoring.
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Workshop 14.1:
The role of cognitive biases in scenario planning.
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Workshop 14.2:
Avoiding groupthink and encouraging diverse perspectives.
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Workshop 14.3:
The use of red teaming to challenge assumptions.
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Workshop 14.4:
Integrating sustainability and ESG factors into scenarios.
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Workshop 14.5:
Practical examples of quantitative and qualitative metrics.
